• The IAEA's 46th edition puts global nuclear capacity at 1,284 GW(e) by 2060 in its high case, about 3.4 times the 377.1 GW(e) operating at the end of 2025, and at 696 GW(e) in its low case.
• Small modular reactors supply 28% of new nuclear capacity in the high case (about 284 GW(e)) and 23% in the low case (roughly 120 GW(e)), per World Nuclear News's account of the report. Larger reactors still carry about 72% or more of new build.
• The projection counts what could be built under supportive assumptions. Financed capacity needs a final investment decision and a buyer; delivering capacity needs a grid connection.
• The Gulf's own delivered nuclear programme, Barakah in the UAE, is a large-reactor fleet, not an SMR one.
• This is analysis, not trading or investment advice.

The IAEA's tripling is a ceiling, not a forecast of what will be built. The agency's 2060 high case has global nuclear capacity at 1,284 GW(e), 3.4 times the 377.1 GW(e) operating at the end of 2025, while its low case reaches 696 GW(e). Small modular reactors supply 23-28% of new build across the two cases, not most of it. Figures are as reported between 14 and 19 September 2026 and stand as of 20 September 2026. This is analysis, not trading or investment advice.

The tripling is the high case; the low case is roughly a doubling

The IAEA's 46th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates puts global nuclear capacity at 1,284 GW(e) by 2060 in its high case, about 3.4 times the 377.1 GW(e) provided by 413 reactors at the end of 2025. The low case reaches 696 GW(e), nearly double the 2025 level. Headlines that say the agency triples its forecast describe only the upper bound. The agency presents the two cases as alternative but plausible deployment assumptions, so the honest reading is a range of roughly 1.8 to 3.4 times today's fleet.

Small reactors are 23-28% of new build, not most of it

In the IAEA's high case, small modular reactors supply 28% of the 1,017 GW(e) of new nuclear capacity added by 2060, about 284 GW(e); in the low case they supply 23% of 521 GW(e), roughly 120 GW(e), according to World Nuclear News's account of the report. Last year's edition, which ran only to 2050, put the share at 24% in its high case and 5% in its low case, so the horizons are not like-for-like. Even at the top of the range, larger reactors carry roughly 72% of new build.

The SMR share is concentrated in a few regions

OilPrice.com reports that the IAEA figures put small modular reactors at roughly 60% of new nuclear capacity in North America and 40% in both South-Eastern Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. That makes the SMR share a regional story, concentrated where specific buyers would have to commit, not a uniform global trend. The IAEA material we reviewed does not say which utilities or industrial users have signed contracts or reached a final investment decision, so these shares describe scenario assumptions rather than a book of orders.

A projection is announced capacity, and the buyer test is still open

An IAEA projection sits on the announced rung of the ladder from announced to financed to delivering capacity: it counts what could be built under supportive assumptions, not what lenders have funded. Financed capacity needs a final investment decision and a buyer with an offtake contract; delivering capacity needs a connected reactor. OilPrice.com quotes David Schlissel of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis arguing that field experience shows small reactors are not economically competitive. That is a critic's contested view, but it names the test the forecast has not yet passed.

In the Gulf, the delivered nuclear programme is a large-reactor one

The Gulf already has a delivered nuclear programme, and it is not built on small reactors. The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation describes Barakah as four units with 5,600 MW of capacity, intended to supply up to 25% of the UAE's electricity. In our reading, it shows what the delivering rung looks like: a single programme of four units of one design. The IAEA's SMR share is a different bet, and the origins we reviewed do not point to a comparable small-reactor fleet already delivering.

Three checks will show whether the forecast is becoming physical

Three checks separate progress from press release. First, the IAEA's full report text: we did not review it, and the figures here come from the agency's announcement and the World Nuclear News and OilPrice.com accounts. Second, how many small modular reactors reach a final investment decision with a named buyer. Third, how many connect to a grid. In our assessment, none of this moves near-term gas power burn or LNG demand; the relevance is long-dated. Nothing here is trading or investment advice.