The Gulf Barrel

Global gas will likely stay tighter than it should be until at least next summer, according to the International Gas Union, as the Iran war reportedly keeps Persian Gulf LNG at an estimated 15-25% of pre-war levels. Europe, with storage near 50%, is outbidding Asia; Goldman Sachs forecasts €70/MWh this winter. Analysis, not advice.

Official data sits below the headline. The U.S. Energy Information Administration puts the August 2026 global oil price average at $91 a barrel and forecasts about $90 for the second half, while Offshore Technology reports benchmarks repeatedly flirted with $100. An average and a peak print measure different things. This is analysis, not advice.

BP entered, then reportedly walked from, the data room for Devon Energy's Eagle Ford assets — valued at $3.5-4.5 billion by Reuters sourcing and TPH Research — with no deal reached. The episode marks CEO Meg O'Neill's return to US shale M&A, while merged Devon sheds non-core Eagle Ford and Powder River acreage.

Woodside's first 235,000-cubic-metre storage tank at Louisiana LNG is confirmed under construction, part of a project Woodside itself says is 28% complete — its own disclosure, not third-party tracking. That milestone matters for the Gulf: it advances one of several new LNG origins competing for buyers against QatarEnergy's targeted 142-million-tonne North Field capacity, due by 2030.

Iraq's State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) is discounting September Basrah crude by $15 to $20.80 a barrel and rushing late-loading offers, Bloomberg reported on September 25, 2026, as Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic stays below prewar levels, Gulf-to-Asia freight adds roughly $20 a barrel, and Vitol Group still lifts cargoes at the discount.

US commercial crude stocks rose 3.0 million barrels to 426.39 million barrels in the week to September 18, about 2% above the five-year average, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reported by Rigzone. Cushing, Oklahoma took most of the build while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) shrank. This is analysis, not a trading call.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a draft environmental impact statement finding Cheniere Energy's proposed 24-mtpa Corpus Christi Stage 4 LNG expansion in Texas would have only less-than-significant adverse effects, opening a 45-day comment window — a procedural step, not a construction permit, ahead of a Final EIS and Commission certificate order.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its 2026 U.S. crude output forecast to 13.83 million barrels per day and its 2027 forecast to 14.26 million barrels per day, both up from August, extending Permian Basin-led, price-driven growth that keeps output above 2025's 13.7 million-b/d record — this is analysis, not investment advice.

Saudi Aramco began testing its East-West Pipeline on September 22, 2026, to resume the up-to-4-million-b/d bypass around blockaded Hormuz after a nine-day shutdown, Bloomberg reported; full restoration is six to eight weeks out. Iran has disclosed three of seven conditions — ending the naval blockade, returning frozen assets, halting the conflict — for reopening the strait itself.

BP has agreed to sell a 5% stake in Western Australia's Browse LNG project to Japan's Osaka Gas, cutting its holding to 34.33% after a similar June 2026 sale to South Korea's GS Energy. The deal, still pre-FID and subject to regulatory and partner approval, buys Osaka Gas roughly 550,000 tonnes a year of LNG offtake, not a financed project.