Crude Oil

US commercial crude stocks rose 3.0 million barrels to 426.39 million barrels in the week to September 18, about 2% above the five-year average, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reported by Rigzone. Cushing, Oklahoma took most of the build while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) shrank. This is analysis, not a trading call.

Oil executives expect WTI to fall from current levels: the Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows respondents averaging $88.38 for year-end 2026, against a $98.70 average spot price during collection. Longer-dated averages of $79 to $82 suggest they treat the Iran-linked premium as temporary, not structural.

IISD estimates that meeting Mexico's current oil and gas targets would need about USD 160 billion, nearly USD 110 billion of it for Pemex, and projects USD 17.4 billion of net losses over 15 years from uncommercial fields. These are the think tank's modelled figures, not Pemex or government data, and not trading advice.

Americans carry the largest share of the war-driven fuel bill, according to CREA: about $160 billion of an estimated $468 billion in extra gasoline and diesel costs worldwide since the Strait of Hormuz disruption, or $471 per person against a $60 global average. The figures are retail-price estimates, not audited spending, and exclude electricity and gas.

UBS now forecasts Brent at $110 a barrel at end-2026, up from $100, and says uncertainty around its forecasts remains elevated. In UBS's account, Gulf loadings have recovered but sit below prewar levels while attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continue. Brent traded near $115.30 on October 28, per OilPrice.com. This is analysis, not trading advice.