Markets

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook raised its 2026 U.S. crude output forecast to 13.83 million barrels per day and its 2027 forecast to 14.26 million barrels per day, both up from August, extending Permian Basin-led, price-driven growth that keeps output above 2025's 13.7 million-b/d record — this is analysis, not investment advice.

EIA reported U.S. commercial crude stocks rose 0.9 million barrels to 427.3 million in the week ending September 25, about 2% above the five-year average, while distillate stocks sit roughly 14% below it. API's survey showed a slightly larger crude build of 1.019 million barrels. The gap is in diesel, not crude. This is analysis, not trading advice.

WTI's discount to Brent has widened past $12 a barrel, the widest since early May, and Brent's geopolitical premium explains only part of it. Standard Chartered's Emily Ashford points to WTI-specific weakness, including priced-in refinery run cuts from diesel export-ban risk. No ban is confirmed. This is analysis, not advice.

Diesel will stay tight into 2027 even as crude exports recover. The IEA's Oil Market Report of 14 October says constrained middle distillate supply is likely to persist well into 2027, while Strait of Hormuz flows rebuilt to 10.9 million barrels a day in September. Refining, not crude, is the bottleneck. Analysis, not advice.