NOC Watch

Brent's November contract settled at $105.83 a barrel (-2.7%) and WTI's October contract at $102.43 (-3.2%) on September 16, 2026, per Rigzone, after Saudi Arabia said roughly 50% of East-West pipeline capacity would return within days and Libya reported normalized output. Both restoration claims trace to a single wire report — confirmed at the price tape, unconfirmed at the wellhead.

Saudi Aramco began testing its East-West Pipeline on September 22, 2026, to resume the up-to-4-million-b/d bypass around blockaded Hormuz after a nine-day shutdown, Bloomberg reported; full restoration is six to eight weeks out. Iran has disclosed three of seven conditions — ending the naval blockade, returning frozen assets, halting the conflict — for reopening the strait itself.

Iraq's State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) is discounting September Basrah crude by $15 to $20.80 a barrel and rushing late-loading offers, Bloomberg reported on September 25, 2026, as Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic stays below prewar levels, Gulf-to-Asia freight adds roughly $20 a barrel, and Vitol Group still lifts cargoes at the discount.

China's crude imports are averaging just under 10 million barrels a day, against 11.6 million last year, and FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have cut fourth-quarter forecasts to 9.3 and 9.2 million. Bloomberg attributes the stall to high prices that squeeze private refiners. These are private estimates, not trading advice.

OGCI's 12 member companies, including Saudi Aramco, reported $28 billion of low-carbon investment in 2025 and 3% production growth, according to Energy Voice on 1 October 2026. That is below the $30 billion OGCI reported for 2024. Figures are member-reported aggregates with no Aramco breakout visible; this is analysis, not trading advice.

The U.S. Department of Energy has issued a sixth Strategic Petroleum Reserve solicitation for up to 40 million barrels, with bids due October 6, 2026 and delivery in November and December. Earlier rounds awarded more than 133 million barrels across four completed exchanges, against a 172-million-barrel U.S. commitment. The barrels are exchanges, repayable with a 25 percent premium.