• Rigzone reported Brent settling near $96 a barrel on 13 November 2026, an approximate level rather than an exact settlement.
• The EIA's November 2026 outlook puts the Brent spot average at $97 for 2026 and $86 for 2027, falling to $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027.
• The EIA assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year.
• The EIA finalized its inputs on 5 November 2026 and does not account for market events after that date.
• The split between risk premium and physical balance in the current price is an estimate, not a reported figure.

Brent settled near $96 a barrel on 13 November 2026, according to Rigzone, as Middle East supply risks offset signs of an oil surplus. The level is the net of two opposing forces, and the EIA's latest outlook draws a lower price path that depends on Gulf production recovering. This piece sizes that gap and marks what is confirmed and what is estimated.

What the Rigzone item says

Rigzone's 13 November 2026 market item, headlined 'Crude Fluctuates as Iran Tensions Persist', says Brent settled near $96 as Middle East supply risks offset signs of an oil surplus. It gives an approximate level rather than an exact settlement, and the summary does not quantify how much of the price reflects risk and how much reflects physical balance. Any such split is therefore an estimate, not a reported figure.

What the EIA assumes

The EIA's November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on 10 November with model inputs finalized on 5 November, puts the Brent spot average at $97 a barrel for 2026 and $86 for 2027, falling to $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027. It assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year. It does not account for market events after 5 November.

Risk versus surplus

The EIA's figures describe a price path conditional on supply recovery; they do not state a risk premium or say that one will fade. The outlook cites attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and constrained shipping capacity as tightening factors, but it does not link them to the Rigzone settlement. A $96 print sits close to the $97 average for 2026, so the gap that matters is against 2027's $86, which rests on the recovery assumption holding.

What to watch next

Three markers will test the balance: confirmed Middle East output against the EIA's recovery assumption, the next EIA and OPEC monthly reports for revisions to supply and inventory estimates, and verified shipping data on Gulf tanker movements. Unconfirmed tanker or satellite flow reports should be treated as estimates until official data confirms them. This is analysis of market structure, not a trading call or investment advice.