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The Gulf Barrel
  1. The Barrel Brief

    Oil's Sharpest Weekly Jump Since July Is a War-Risk

    Brent rose 8.7% this week on reported Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb and a precautionary Saudi pipeline shutdown, then gave back ground on Friday — a reminder that a war premium prices fear of lost barrels, not lost barrels themselves. This is analysis, not advice.

  2. The Barrel Brief

    J.P. Morgan's Kaneva: The Oil Curve May Still Be

    A new J.P. Morgan note argues the market's tightest-point-is-now bet has repeatedly been wrong this cycle — and that the bank's own $80 fourth-quarter Brent call could be too conservative, not too aggressive.

  3. The Barrel Brief

    IEA Deepens 2026 Oil Demand Cut to 2.5 Million B/D as Iran

    The IEA's September Oil Market Report trims 2026 demand by a further 940,000 b/d while cutting supply even harder, widening the projected deficit to 1.7 million b/d. This is analysis of what moved the barrel, not advice.

  4. Energy Transition

    Heat Pumps Keep Outselling Gas Furnaces in the US

    The IEA's Heat Pump Monitor 2026 says heat pumps have outsold gas boilers and furnaces in the US for a fourth straight year, and now do the same in France and Germany — though the report doesn't date that European crossover. Building heat is still a fraction of the Gulf's gas ledger; this is analysis, not advice.

  5. Policy & Geopolitics

    OEUK's Ask: Move the North Sea's Post-EPL Tax Regime

    Offshore Energies UK wants Chancellor John Healey to start the Oil and Gas Revenue Levy three years early, arguing the switch pays for itself. The figures on the table are the industry's own modeling, not a Treasury commitment, ahead of Healey's first Budget.

  6. Refining & Gas/LNG

    Gasoline Rose in Every US State This Week

    GasBuddy data show the national gasoline average climbing to $4.25 a gallon in every state, but the driver is a Gulf supply shock — Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown and Brent crude above $107 — not a domestic refining problem.

  7. NOC Watch

    Oil Slides as Saudi Arabia Signals Partial Pipeline Restart

    Brent and WTI settled sharply lower Wednesday on reports that Saudi Arabia will restore about half its East-West pipeline capacity and that Libyan output has normalized — claims that remain reported, not independently confirmed, against a still-tight US inventory and diesel picture.

  8. Refining & Products

    Russia's August Fuel-Export Rebound Depends on Whose

    Reuters-sourced industry data show Russian seaborne oil-product loadings up 16.4% month-on-month in August, still roughly half of a year earlier. A rival tracker, CREA, logged the opposite move — a reminder that none of this is official trade data.

  9. The Transition Desk

    IEA's Birol: Electricity Demand Is Growing Three Times

    Speaking in Seoul, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol restated the electrification thesis behind the agency's Electricity 2026 outlook, even as AI-risk headlines rattle broader sentiment. The multiple is real; what is still unproven is how much of the announced capacity behind it actually gets financed and delivered.