• Rystad Energy's modelled estimate, as reported by LNG Prime on 26 October 2026, puts 2026 global LNG portfolio costs at no less than $256.3 billion, against a $217.8 billion pre-war estimate.
• The result rests on an assumption that Qatari and UAE LNG is unavailable from March to the end of 2026. It is a model input, not a confirmed outcome.
• Europe's bill is reported to rise by at least $12 billion while demand falls 24 million tonnes, with about 65% of its LNG bought on the spot market.
• East Asia's reported cost increase is 9.7%, the smallest outside the Middle East, with spot at 14.5% of imports.
• The figures come from a secondary restatement, not the Rystad dataset. This is analysis, not trading advice.

Global LNG importers are on course to pay more for less gas in 2026. LNG Prime reported on 26 October 2026 that Rystad Energy estimates buyers will spend at least $39 billion more on contracted and spot supply while taking 60.7 million tonnes less. The cause is disruption linked to the Middle East conflict. The numbers are modelled by one firm and reach us through a secondary restatement, so they are a sized claim to test, not a settled fact.

What the estimate covers

LNG Prime reports Rystad Energy's estimate that 2026 global LNG portfolio costs reach at least $256.3 billion, against a pre-war estimate of $217.8 billion, an increase LNG Prime puts at 18%. The restatement does not formally define the pre-war baseline. The modelled assumption is that Qatari and UAE deliveries are unavailable from March to the end of 2026. Change that assumption and both the volume loss and the extra cost change with it.

Europe's spot exposure

LNG Prime reports that Rystad Energy expects Europe's LNG bill to rise by at least $12 billion even as demand falls 24 million tonnes. Europe buys about 65% of its LNG on the spot market, and about a quarter of its long-term contracts are tied to gas price indexes. Rystad expects Europe to lose 20.6 of the 24.7 million tonnes of Qatari LNG scheduled for 2026, with the average price up 47%.

East Asia looks better placed

Rystad Energy's figures, as relayed by LNG Prime, show East Asia with the smallest cost increase outside the Middle East, at 9.7%, and spot at 14.5% of imports. The restatement's description of how oil-linked and hub-linked long-term contracts have repriced is ambiguous, so this piece does not rely on it. The lower spot share is the reported explanation for the milder rise, and only Rystad's full dataset could test it.

What Rystad's earlier data adds

Rystad Energy's 4 September 2026 note said global LNG output remained about 9% below last year and that Asian imports rebounded 6.3% on heat-driven demand, ending five months of decline. The page does not specify the comparison baseline for either figure. Its base case points to an uneven reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the fourth quarter, which would shorten the outage assumed in the $39 billion estimate. This is analysis, not trading advice.