• Venezuela is weighing an OPEC exit, per Bloomberg reporting citing people familiar with the matter; no decision has been made.
• The move follows the US ouster of Nicolás Maduro and parallel talks over a possible US stake — including a floated 100-year lease — in Venezuelan oil fields.
• Venezuela pumped 1.16 million barrels a day in July 2026, per Bloomberg — under half of decade-ago output — and already carries no OPEC quota.
• The UAE left OPEC in April 2026; a Venezuelan exit alongside it would remove more than 5 million barrels a day of nominal group capacity, per World Oil.
• Analysts quoted by World Oil frame the trend as evidence of eroding OPEC cohesion, not an immediate supply-side market mover.

Venezuela is considering leaving OPEC after 66 years of membership, Bloomberg reported August 28, 2026, citing people familiar with discussions that include US officials; no decision has been finalized. The idea surfaced as Washington and Caracas discuss a parallel deal giving the US a stake — potentially a 100-year lease — in Venezuelan oil fields, following President Donald Trump's move to oust Nicolás Maduro and take control of the country's oil sales. Because Venezuela pumped just 1.16 million barrels a day in July, per Bloomberg's survey, an exit would carry more symbolic than physical weight. This is analysis, not advice.

What Bloomberg Reported

Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter, reported August 28, 2026 that Caracas has discussed withdrawing from OPEC in conversations that include US officials, though the government has not made a final decision, according to the outlet's sourcing. Rigzone syndicated the wire report the following day. The claim rests on unnamed origins rather than an on-record Venezuelan government statement or an OPEC filing, so it should be read as reported, not confirmed, until Caracas or OPEC's Vienna secretariat comments directly.

Why Now: A Political Realignment

The reported OPEC deliberation tracks a broader realignment in Caracas since the Trump administration ousted longtime leader Nicolás Maduro and asserted control over Venezuela's oil sales, per Bloomberg. Simultaneously, US and Venezuelan negotiators are discussing a deal that would give Washington a stake in the country's oil fields, potentially including a 100-year lease on several of them, Bloomberg reported. Separately, Chevron reached an asset-swap agreement with Venezuela in April 2026, per prior Bloomberg reporting. None of these arrangements has been finalized or independently confirmed by either government.

The Numbers Behind the Exemption

Venezuela pumped 1.16 million barrels per day in July 2026, according to a Bloomberg survey — less than half its output of a decade earlier, though up from earlier-2026 lows. That production collapse is precisely why Caracas currently faces no OPEC quota: the group exempts members whose output has been gutted by sanctions and internal turmoil. A formal exit would therefore change little about actual barrels reaching the market in the near term, even as it reshapes OPEC's roster.

UAE's Exit and the Quota Math

Venezuela would not be the first defector this year: the United Arab Emirates announced its departure from OPEC in April 2026, reportedly frustrated with production limits that constrained its expanded capacity, according to World Oil. Combined, a UAE-and-Venezuela exit would remove more than 5 million barrels per day of nominal capacity from the group — roughly 17% of core-member capacity as of early 2026, per World Oil's reporting. Capital Economics' Hamad Hussain called the trend, as quoted by World Oil, 'another sign of the group's influence on the oil market waning.'

So What: Symbolic Blow, Limited Barrels

An OPEC exit by Venezuela would be reputationally significant — the country was a founding member in 1960, and its oil minister Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonzo is widely credited as the cartel's chief architect — but it would barely move near-term supply, since Venezuelan barrels already sit outside OPEC's quota system. Bloomberg and World Oil's coverage frames the story against market 'shockwaves' from what wire reports describe as an active US-Iran conflict; that framing is the wires' own characterization, not something confirmed here, and readers should treat it as reported context. This is analysis, not advice.