Dallas Fed Energy Survey: US Oil Producers Are Growing
The third-quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows activity still expanding, but a $70–$126 spread in year-end WTI expectations and respondent comments about $5, $10 and $20 price swings point to an industry that is producing more while planning less.
Producers are reporting growth but not confidence. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey shows activity at 38.8, down from 46.1, while respondents expect West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $88.38 by year-end, within a $70–$126 range. Expansion continues; planning visibility does not. Rigzone highlights volatility comments. This is analysis, not advice.
The Gulf Barrel Desk · 4 min read- The Dallas Fed's Q3 2026 business activity index fell to 38.8 from 46.1, but it is still well into expansion territory.
- Respondents expect WTI at $88.38 at year-end 2026 on average, but individual answers span $70 to $126, which shows how little consensus there is.
- The oil production index rose to 20.7 from 15.0, and the natural gas index rose to 14.8 from 3.7, so volatility has not stopped output growth.
- Uncertainty is concentrated in producers: the E&P uncertainty index was 40.2 against 9.5 for oilfield services firms, as reported by Rigzone.
- This is survey sentiment from 125 firms, not a production forecast or a trading signal, and it is analysis, not advice.
US oil and gas executives are still expanding, but they are doing it without a shared view of the price. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas's third-quarter energy survey, with responses gathered September 16–24, 2026, shows activity slowing slightly yet staying solid, while the comment section is dominated by words like volatility, instability and uncertainty, according to Rigzone's reading. This analysis uses the Dallas Fed's published figures as of October 4, 2026. It is analysis, not advice.
Activity cooled, but it is still expanding
The headline business activity index fell to 38.8 from 46.1 in the second quarter, which the Dallas Fed describes as an expansion that slowed slightly but remained solid. A positive reading means more respondents saw activity rise than fall, so this is a deceleration, not a contraction. The Dallas Fed also reports the oil production index at 20.7, up from 15.0, and the natural gas production index up to 14.8 from 3.7.
Expectations for WTI are wide apart
Respondents averaged $88.38 per barrel for WTI at year-end 2026, according to the Dallas Fed, but individual answers ran from $70 to $126. For natural gas the average was $3.29 per MMBtu, within a $2.20 to $8.00 range. An average is a weak planning input when the spread is this wide. The two ends of the range imply very different drilling and hedging decisions.
Uncertainty sits with producers, not service firms
Rigzone reports the overall uncertainty index at 29.8, essentially unchanged, but split sharply by segment: 40.2 for exploration and production firms against 9.5 for services firms. The same report puts the E&P outlook index at 50.0 and the services outlook at 4.6. Producers are more optimistic and more unsure at once, which fits firms that carry commodity-price exposure directly rather than through contracts.
Respondents describe price swings as routine
According to Rigzone's summary, respondents wrote that WTI is in the $90s and pushing $100, and that price moves of $5, $10 and $20 have become common. These are survey comments, not market data, and they should be checked against exchange settlements before use. They do show what executives say they are planning around: a price that can move by a fifth in either direction between budget reviews.
Cost pressure and delivery delays remain
Cost indices stayed elevated. Rigzone reports oilfield services input costs at 60.4, down from 64.4, E&P finding and development costs at 41.5, and lease operating expenses at 43.9. The Dallas Fed adds that supplier delivery times kept lengthening, with that index at 36.2. Growth under high costs and slower supply chains means margins, not just prices, are what executives are managing.
What to watch next
The test is whether output growth continues if the price range narrows or breaks. Watch the next survey's production indices, the gap between E&P and services uncertainty, and the dispersion of year-end price answers against actual settlements. Survey data is also a sample of 125 firms in one region, so it should be read next to EIA and OPEC data. It is not a trading call, and it is analysis, not advice.
- What did the Q3 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey show?
- The business activity index eased to 38.8 from 46.1, the oil production index rose to 20.7 from 15.0, and respondents averaged a year-end WTI expectation of $88.38 per barrel. The Dallas Fed collected responses from 125 firms, 83 E&P and 42 services, between September 16 and 24, 2026.
- Why does the survey's wide price range matter?
- A $70–$126 range for the same year-end WTI price means the people drilling the wells do not share a base case. Wide dispersion usually makes capital plans, hedging and service contracting harder to set, even while current activity is expanding.
- Is this a signal to buy or sell oil?
- No. The survey measures executive sentiment and expectations among Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico energy firms. It is context for how producers are behaving, not a price forecast, and this is analysis, not advice.
- Latest Dallas Fed Survey Reveals Theme Among Respondents — Rigzone
- Dallas Fed Energy Survey, Third Quarter 2026 — Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas