• EIA's September 2026 STEO lifted 2026 U.S. crude output to 13.83 million b/d and 2027 to 14.26 million b/d, both revised up from August's 13.80 million and 14.15 million b/d.
• 2026 is now projected to be the first full calendar year U.S. production tops the prior record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025.
• The upgrade tracks price, not policy: WTI averaged roughly $84/b through August 2026 versus $65/b in 2025, above Permian breakeven costs of $63-$69/b cited by EIA.
• The Federal Gulf of America grew fastest in percentage terms — output up about 10% year-on-year in early 2026 — though it remains a smaller absolute contributor than the Permian.
• A STEO revision is a monthly model update, not a locked-in build-out; actual barrels still depend on operators' capex decisions, which lag price signals by months.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production to 13.83 million barrels per day for 2026 and 14.26 million b/d for 2027 — both revised up from the agency's August STEO of 13.80 million and 14.15 million b/d, respectively, per Rigzone's reading of the STEO comparison tables. The move is incremental, a combined 0.14 million b/d across the two years, but it reinforces a trend EIA had already flagged in its own September 10 Today in Energy note: 2026 is on pace to be the first full calendar year U.S. output tops the prior record of 13.7 million b/d, set in 2025.

What Moved the Number: Price, Not Policy

EIA's own explanation for the upgrade is price economics, not a policy shift. WTI averaged about $84 per barrel through August 2026, up from $65/b in 2025, and that level sits above the $63-$69/b breakeven range EIA cites for the Permian's major sub-basins. The Permian is forecast to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, up 3% from 2025, and EIA attributes that growth directly to the higher price deck rather than to any new federal leasing or permitting action. This is a drilling-economics story, not a Washington story.

The Federal Gulf of America Is Growing Fastest, in Percentage Terms

Offshore output in the Federal Gulf of America rose about 10%, or roughly 0.2 million b/d, in early 2026 versus the same period in 2025, and EIA projects a full-year gain of about 3%, or 0.1 million b/d. That is the sharpest percentage move of any region EIA breaks out, though it remains a smaller absolute contributor than the Permian's onshore volumes. EIA's release does not name specific platforms or final investment decisions behind the increase, so the gain should be read as a production ramp already under way, not a newly announced project.

Read the Forecast Against the Build-Out, Not the Headline

A STEO revision is a monthly model update built on the latest price and drilling data, not a locked-in commitment — EIA changes these figures nearly every month as conditions shift, and the September table itself replaces an August table that will in turn be replaced in October. The instructive detail from EIA's own release is the record framing: U.S. crude output has never averaged 14 million b/d or above in a full year, and 2027's projected 14.26 million b/d, if it holds, would be the first year to cross that threshold. Until sanctioned capacity and realized drilling catch up to the forecast, that remains a projection to watch, not a delivered barrel — and none of this is a trading call.