• Confirmed on the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook page (October 6, 2026 release): U.S. crude output is projected at 13.9 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.3 million in 2027.
• Reported by Rigzone: the unrounded figures are 13.87 million b/d for 2026 (September: 13.83) and 14.30 million for 2027 (September: 14.26), including lease condensate.
• The 2026 forecast has risen in every monthly edition since April, when it stood at 13.51 million b/d, per Rigzone's tabulation of EIA releases.
• The same EIA outlook projects Brent at $96 per barrel in 2026 and $84 in 2027, so higher U.S. supply coincides with a lower projected price.
• A forecast is a model output, not observed production; EIA weekly and monthly data are the check on it.

The EIA has raised its 2026 U.S. crude production forecast again, by a small margin. Its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, released October 6, 2026, projects output of about 13.9 million barrels per day this year and 14.3 million in 2027. Rigzone reports the unrounded figures as 13.87 and 14.30 million b/d, each a few hundredths above the September edition. These are model projections, not measured output, and nothing here is a trading call.

What changed in the October forecast

The October edition lifts both years by a few hundredths of a million barrels per day. According to Rigzone, which tracked the EIA's monthly releases including lease condensate, the 2026 estimate rose from 13.83 million in September to 13.87 million, and the 2027 estimate from 14.26 million to 14.30 million. The 2026 figure has risen in every edition since April's 13.51 million. Revisions this small sit within normal model noise, so the signal is the persistence of direction, not the size of any single step.

Why 14 million is still a forecast, not a record

Measured output has not yet reached the line. Rigzone, citing EIA data, reports that U.S. crude production has never averaged 14 million b/d in a year or a month; the highest monthly figure was 13.995 million in October 2025, and 2025 averaged a record 13.662 million. The 2026 projection of 13.87 million would therefore be a new annual record, while the 2027 projection of 14.30 million would be the first annual average above 14 million. Both remain model outputs that actual production data must confirm.

Supply growth against a lower Brent path

The same October outlook projects Brent spot at $96 per barrel on average in 2026 and $84 in 2027, with a fourth-quarter 2026 average of $105, according to the EIA's outlook page. Rising U.S. supply alongside a falling price path is the EIA's own projection; the agency's page does not say the first causes the second, and this desk does not draw that link. For Gulf exporters, the figure to watch is the gap between the 2026 and 2027 Brent averages. This is analysis, not trading advice.

What to watch next

The EIA lists its next Short-Term Energy Outlook for November 10, 2026, which will show whether the monthly upward drift continues. Rigzone's tabulation of the October outlook puts OPEC+ at 29.54 million b/d of global crude output in 2026 and 33.38 million in 2027, against U.S. shares of 18.39% and 17.54%, so revisions to those splits are worth tracking. Weekly and monthly EIA production data are the check on whether the U.S. path is being met. This is analysis, not advice.