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EIA Sees Henry Hub Falling 9% to $3.16 in 2027

EIA Sees Henry Hub Falling 9% to $3.16 in 2027

EIA's October outlook puts Henry Hub at $3.48 in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027, as storage stays high and LNG exports grow.

EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook sees Henry Hub averaging $3.48 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027, a 9% fall. Above-average storage and production growth outweigh rising LNG exports, which EIA puts at 17.6 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027. This is analysis, not trading advice.

The Gulf Barrel Desk · 3 min read

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Henry Hub natural gas to average $3.48 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.16 per MMBtu in 2027, according to its October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, which was released on October 6 and completed on October 1. The 2027 figure is a 9% decrease. For anyone sizing the U.S. gas build-out against global LNG demand, the message is that EIA sees supply keeping pace with export growth. This is analysis, not trading advice.

Why EIA expects a lower 2027

EIA attributes the 2027 decline to inventories running above average through its forecast, as production growth offsets rising LNG exports. Rigzone reports that EIA also ties the drop to January 2026, when Henry Hub averaged $7.72 per MMBtu after winter storm Fern. That single month inflates the 2026 base, so part of the 9% decline is arithmetic rather than a view on 2027 demand. EIA reports 2025 actuals at $3.53 per MMBtu, per Rigzone.

LNG exports are the demand lever

LNG is the demand channel linking Henry Hub to global gas, and EIA's table shows it growing: 15.1 Bcf/d of U.S. exports in 2025, 17.6 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027. That is roughly a one-Bcf/d step in 2027, which EIA expects production to cover without eroding the storage surplus. Rigzone also reports record Gulf Coast LNG feedgas, a claim it credits to EBW Analytics Group; EIA's own page does not state that figure.

The quarterly path is not a straight line

Annual averages hide a seasonal shape. Per the October figures reported by Rigzone, quarterly prices run $3.30 in 4Q26, $3.47 in 1Q27, $2.64 in 2Q27, $3.04 in 3Q27 and $3.49 in 4Q27. Monthly, the low is $2.60 in April and May 2027, and December 2027 ends at $3.90. Rigzone also reports end-October 2026 storage forecast at 3,850 Bcf, 2% above the five-year average. These are projections, not contracted prices.

What to watch next

The next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due November 10, 2026, and it will show whether EIA revises its storage and price path. The main risks to this forecast are winter weather, which drove January 2026's spike, and the pace at which new export capacity absorbs production. The U.S. export build-out also shapes the competitive backdrop for Gulf LNG suppliers. Treat every figure here as an agency estimate with error bars.

What does EIA forecast for the Henry Hub price in 2026 and 2027?
In its October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot at $3.48 per MMBtu in 2026 and $3.16 per MMBtu in 2027, a 9% decrease. The forecast was completed on October 1, 2026.
Why does EIA expect prices to fall in 2027?
EIA points to higher-than-average natural gas inventories, driven by production increases that offset rising LNG exports. The comparison with 2026 is also lifted by January 2026, when Henry Hub averaged $7.72 per MMBtu after winter storm Fern.
How much LNG does EIA expect the U.S. to export?
EIA's table shows U.S. LNG exports of 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, 17.6 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027.
Is this a trading signal?
No. These are agency projections and carry forecast error. This is analysis, not investment or trading advice.
  1. What Direction Will the Henry Hub Gas Price Take in 2026, 2027? — Rigzone
  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration