• OilPrice.com, in an article dated November 5, 2026, reports Guyana was lifting 908,000 barrels a day by the end of August 2026; the article cites no primary source for that figure.
• The EIA said in a June 16, 2025 analysis that Hormuz oil flow averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2024, about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
• On those two figures, Guyana's output is under 5% of Hormuz flows, so it cushions the market at the margin and cannot replace the chokepoint.
• The EIA Hormuz data covers 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, so it shows the chokepoint's scale, not current flows.
• This is analysis of supply mechanics, not a trading call.

OilPrice.com argues that Guyana's expanding production helps ease a tight global oil market at a time of fears over further US strikes on Iran and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The direction of that argument is fair. The scale is the issue: Guyana is a meaningful source of new barrels, while Hormuz is a chokepoint that carries about a fifth of the world's liquids consumption. The two should not be netted against each other.

Guyana's output is close to one million barrels a day

OilPrice.com, in an article dated November 5, 2026, reports that Guyana was lifting 908,000 barrels a day by the end of August 2026 and is on track to pass one million barrels a day before the end of December 2026. The article cites no primary source for the 908,000 figure, so we treat it as a reported estimate until Guyanese government or operator data confirms it. It also says the Uaru project is expected to add 250,000 barrels a day of capacity.

Hormuz is an order of magnitude larger

The EIA's June 16, 2025 analysis says oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2024, about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. It adds that flows in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 made up more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Against that, 908,000 barrels a day is under 5% of Hormuz flows. Guyana adds supply at the margin; it is not a substitute route for a chokepoint.

Why the comparison is still worth making

Guyana matters because its growth is incremental supply sourced outside the Gulf. OilPrice.com says around 60% of its oil shipments go to Europe and a third to the United States, again without citing a source. That helps Atlantic-basin buyers, but it does not reduce Hormuz exposure for importers that rely on Gulf crude, and it would not cap prices in a sustained disruption. The effect is a cushion on the margin, not a ceiling.

What to watch next

Three markers matter: whether Guyana's output confirms the one-million-barrel threshold by December 2026; whether the Uaru project starts up on the schedule OilPrice.com describes; and whether Hormuz transit holds. The EIA data cited here covers 2024 and early 2025, so it describes the chokepoint's scale, not today's flows. Any tanker or satellite flow data should be treated as an estimate. This is analysis, not trading advice.