• Commercial crude excluding the SPR fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.134 million in the week ended October 2, one percent above the five-year average, per the EIA figures reported by Rigzone.
• Macquarie had forecast a 2.6 million barrel build and Zaye Capital Markets' Naaem Aslam cited an expected 1.9 million barrel build, so the print missed on direction.
• Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen called the draw broadly in line with the seasonal average and cited total crude and fuel exports of 12.8 million bpd, the highest since May.
• Crude imports rose 1.1 million bpd to 6.8 million bpd, so the draw came from exports and refinery demand (runs of 16.5 million bpd), not weak imports.
• The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 283.0 million barrels, 30.5% below a year earlier, in line with Macquarie's forecast of a 0.8 million barrel decline.

U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.134 million barrels in the week ended October 2, from 427.320 million a week earlier. The figures come from the EIA report released October 7, as reported by Rigzone and reviewed on October 11, 2026. The EIA said stocks were one percent above the five-year average. Forecasters had expected a build, so the direction of the move was the surprise. This is analysis, not trading advice.

The draw ran against the forecasts

Rigzone reports that Macquarie, in a note sent October 5, forecast a 2.6 million barrel crude build for the week, and that Naaem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets cited an expected build of 1.9 million barrels. The actual result was a draw of 3.2 million barrels. Aslam read the print as tighter domestic supply than markets expected. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen was less dramatic, calling the level broadly in line with the seasonal average. The two readings differ, and both are commentary rather than EIA findings.

Exports and refinery demand absorbed the imports

Crude imports rose 1.1 million bpd to 6.8 million bpd, so weak inflows do not explain the draw. Refinery runs rose 223,000 bpd to 16.5 million bpd, at 92.7 percent capacity utilization, according to the EIA figures Rigzone reports. Hansen cited total U.S. crude and fuel exports of 12.8 million bpd, the highest since May and a seasonal record, and described refinery crude demand as a seasonal record. Strong exports and refinery intake together are the most direct reading of why stocks fell.

The SPR is a separate series

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 283.0 million barrels, down 0.3% on the week from 283.8 million and down 30.5% from 407.0 million a year earlier, per Rigzone's report of the EIA data. Macquarie had forecast a similar draw of 0.8 million barrels, so the move was expected. The reserve is counted apart from commercial stocks, which means its decline does not feed into the 3.2 million barrel commercial figure.

Products are tighter than crude

Product inventories sit lower against their five-year averages than crude does. Per the EIA figures Rigzone reports, distillate stocks were unchanged on the week and 12 percent below the five-year average, gasoline rose 0.4 million barrels and was six percent below, and propane fell 1.8 million barrels but stayed 18 percent above. Total petroleum stocks were 1.520 billion barrels, down 7.7 million on the week. Four-week average total product supplied was 21.1 million bpd, up 0.7% from a year earlier.

What to watch next

The EIA's weekly petroleum page lists the next release for Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Eastern, citing the closure of the federal government on Monday, October 12. Watch whether refinery utilization holds near 92.7 percent and whether exports stay near 12.8 million bpd. Gulf supply, OPEC+ policy and Dubai-linked differentials are outside this report, and one weekly print does not establish a trend.