• Goldman Sachs puts the global average crude freight rate above $20 a barrel, against about $3 a year earlier, as relayed by Rigzone on 23 October 2026.
• Goldman's breakdown: about $7 from Hormuz war risk, $4 from ship-to-ship transfers, $4 from fuel, $3 from inefficient allocation and rerouting, and $2 from the blocked Iranian fleet.
• Hormuz is the largest single piece but about 35% of the $20 total, so most of the freight stack is not a pure Hormuz premium.
• Most benchmarks are priced free-on-board, so freight does not show in the headline price. It shows up in discounts and in refiner buying choices.
• Goldman expects distant sellers to need deeper discounts and centrally located grades such as Brent to gain. This is analysis of a reported estimate, not a trading call.

The cost of moving a barrel of crude has become a market story in its own right. Goldman Sachs analysts, as reported by Rigzone on 23 October 2026, put the global average crude freight rate above $20 per barrel, against about $3 a year earlier. Goldman said rates edged down in recent days as the risk premium eased. The figures are Goldman's estimates relayed by Rigzone; we have not seen the underlying report and treat them as reported, not confirmed. This is analysis, not advice.

Where the $20 comes from

Goldman's breakdown, as relayed by Rigzone, puts Strait of Hormuz war risk at about $7 a barrel, the largest single piece but only about 35% of the $20 total. Ship-to-ship transfers outside the Persian Gulf add about $4, higher marine fuel about $4, inefficient allocation and redirections about $3, and the blocked Iranian fleet about $2. The five parts sum to the $20 rate, not to the roughly $17 rise over last year, so they describe the level rather than the change.

Why the Gulf shuttle matters

Macquarie, in a note relayed by Rigzone, says owners are reluctant to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite high fees, leaving a limited set of owners and Gulf national oil companies moving cargoes. It describes ad hoc shuttle runs to transfer areas in the Gulf of Oman as less efficient than a continuous load-to-destination voyage. Rigzone also relays a Macquarie figure of up to $40 million for a VLCC voyage fee. These are Macquarie's reported estimates, not primary data we have checked.

Who pays when benchmarks exclude freight

Goldman notes that most crude benchmarks are priced free-on-board, so freight is absent from the headline price but can still cut refiner demand or redirect it to nearer suppliers. On its reading, distant sellers, including Middle Eastern crude going to Asia, may need deeper discounts, while centrally located grades such as Brent in Northwest Europe and Russia's ESPO may gain. Asian refiners are hit hardest, which Goldman says could squeeze product output.

A second read on charter costs

RBN Energy's published headline, "$70 Million Breather: VLCC Freight Costs Remain Sky High", points the same way: charter costs for very large tankers remain extremely elevated even after a pause. We cite RBN only for that headline-level reading and have not independently verified its underlying figures. A per-voyage charter cost is a different measure from Goldman's global per-barrel average, so the two should not be compared directly.

What to watch next

The test is whether the Hormuz premium fades faster than the structural costs. Goldman says rates will likely stay elevated while the Middle East conflict continues, and only the roughly $7 risk component is directly tied to Hormuz sentiment. Fuel, transfer inefficiency and sanctions-driven fleet splits can persist regardless. Watch Gulf-to-Asia discounts, Asian refinery runs and the Brent spread to distant grades for signs that freight is passing into crude pricing. This is analysis, not advice.