• OilPrice.com reports a nine-month 2026 net profit of $4.73 billion at Dangote Petroleum Refinery, against a $117.2 million loss a year earlier, on revenue of $22.48 billion.
• Financial Nigeria reports first-half 2026 profit of about $1.82 billion from the IPO prospectus, so the reported figures imply roughly $2.9 billion of profit in the third quarter alone.
• OilPrice.com credits wider product margins, especially diesel and jet fuel, to Middle East refining and export disruptions linked to the Iran war. That is a market driver, not a plant-only gain.
• Reported EBITDA of $5.52 billion is only about 17% above net profit of $4.73 billion, which leaves little room for depreciation, interest and tax and calls for audited confirmation.
• OilPrice.com reports the $1.6 billion IPO was extended to 27 October 2026 after heavy demand. This is analysis, not investment advice.

Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery has gone from a loss to a very large reported profit in under a year, just as it asks investors for about $1.6 billion. OilPrice.com, on 13 October 2026, reports a nine-month net profit of $4.73 billion against a $117.2 million loss a year earlier. The first-half figure in the IPO prospectus was about $1.82 billion, so the third quarter would have to carry most of the gain. The open question is how much of that is the plant and how much is a temporary market.

What the reported numbers show

OilPrice.com reports revenue of $22.48 billion, up from $9.19 billion, and EBITDA of $5.52 billion, up from $627.6 million. It also reports operating cash flow of $3.68 billion, cash of $6.69 billion and net cash of $650.8 million, after $1.73 billion of net debt a year earlier. The outlet says the figures come from the refinery's reported results and does not say whether they are audited or taken from a filing, so they remain reported, not confirmed.

The third quarter carries the result

Financial Nigeria reports first-half 2026 revenue of $13.91 billion, EBITDA of $2.60 billion and after-tax profit of about $1.82 billion, citing the IPO prospectus. Subtracting those from the nine-month figures implies roughly $8.6 billion of revenue, $2.9 billion of EBITDA and $2.9 billion of profit in the third quarter. That is this desk's arithmetic on two outlets' numbers, not a reported result, and it implies a net margin above 30% in a single quarter.

Why the margin matters more than the volume

OilPrice.com says product margins rose sharply, especially for diesel and jet fuel, because of Middle East refining and export disruptions linked to the Iran war, and that Dangote lifted exports, including jet fuel to Western Europe. It gives no per-barrel margin and no nine-month throughput; capacity is described as 700,000 barrels per day. A disruption-driven crack spread is set by the market and can narrow, so the profit is not yet a run-rate.

Why EBITDA and net profit sit so close

Reported EBITDA of $5.52 billion is only about $0.8 billion above net profit of $4.73 billion. For a plant of this size, that leaves little room for depreciation, interest and tax. The sources do not explain the gap, and it may reflect tax treatment, timing or financing structure. The audited accounts and prospectus notes, not a trade-outlet summary, are where it should be checked before the nine-month figures are relied on.

What the share sale and expansion mean

OilPrice.com reports a $1.6 billion IPO at a valuation of roughly $47 billion, originally due to close on 13 October and extended to 27 October 2026 after heavy demand overwhelmed some Nigerian investment platforms. It says the proceeds will partly fund a plan to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029. Hydrocarbon Processing cites a $14 billion expansion. How the balance is financed is not stated in the sources reviewed.

What to watch next is the audited result and whether the third-quarter margin persists once the supply disruption eases. The wider point is that a large West African refinery exporting diesel and jet fuel to Europe can reshape regional product flows, but the sources do not size that effect. This is analysis, not investment advice.