How much would it cost to meet Mexico's oil and gas output targets?

IISD estimates about USD 160 billion, of which nearly USD 110 billion is for Pemex, according to its report and press release as relayed by OilPrice.com. It is a modelled estimate, not an official Pemex budget.

Where does the USD 17.4 billion loss figure come from?

IISD says developing fields without commercial viability could generate net losses of USD 17.4 billion over 15 years. It is a projection from the think tank's field-level analysis, and this desk has not tested it independently.

What does IISD recommend instead?

IISD argues Mexico should favour domestic renewable generation, grids and storage over expanding oil and gas, saying this could reduce import reliance and attract private capital. That is the authors' position.

IISD: Pemex Share of Mexico Output Goals Near $110bn

A think-tank estimate puts Mexico's upstream bill near USD 160bn, but the figures are IISD's modelling, not Pemex's.

IISD estimates that meeting Mexico's current oil and gas targets would need about USD 160 billion, nearly USD 110 billion of it for Pemex, and projects USD 17.4 billion of net losses over 15 years from uncommercial fields. These are the think tank's modelled figures, not Pemex or government data, and not trading advice.

The Gulf Barrel Desk October 11, 2026 Updated October 11, 2026 · 2 min read

IISD estimates about USD 160 billion of spending is needed to meet Mexico's current oil and gas targets, with nearly USD 110 billion for Pemex.
IISD says developing fields without commercial viability could generate net losses of USD 17.4 billion over 15 years.
IISD's press release states that production targets may not be met within the planned timeframe even at this level of spending.
The authors argue for domestic renewables, grids and storage over expanded oil and gas, a view that belongs to IISD.
These are one think tank's modelled estimates; this desk found no Pemex or government figures to compare them with. This is analysis, not trading advice.

IISD estimates that meeting Mexico's current oil and gas production targets would cost about USD 160 billion, with nearly USD 110 billion of it falling to Pemex, according to its September 2026 report and press release, as relayed by OilPrice.com on 10 October 2026. These are the think tank's modelled estimates. The desk found no Pemex or government figures to set against them.

What IISD projects

IISD says its field-level data show that developing fields without commercial viability could generate net losses of USD 17.4 billion over 15 years. Its press release also states that production targets may not be met within the planned timeframe even with this level of spending. Both points are IISD's projections and conclusions. They are not confirmed outcomes, and this desk has not tested the underlying field data.

IISD's proposed alternative

The authors argue that Mexico should favour domestic renewable generation, grids and storage over expanding oil and gas production, and say this could reduce import reliance and attract private capital. OilPrice.com reports that Mexico imports about two-thirds of the energy it consumes. The recommendation is an advocacy position from the report's authors. It is a policy argument, not a finding the desk has verified.

What to watch

The open questions are whether Pemex or the Mexican government publish their own capital plan and field economics, and whether they dispute IISD's loss estimate. Until they do, the USD 160 billion and USD 17.4 billion figures remain one outside group's modelling. This piece sizes a state oil company's funding risk and is analysis, not trading advice.

How much would it cost to meet Mexico's oil and gas output targets?: IISD estimates about USD 160 billion, of which nearly USD 110 billion is for Pemex, according to its report and press release as relayed by OilPrice.com. It is a modelled estimate, not an official Pemex budget.
Where does the USD 17.4 billion loss figure come from?: IISD says developing fields without commercial viability could generate net losses of USD 17.4 billion over 15 years. It is a projection from the think tank's field-level analysis, and this desk has not tested it independently.
What does IISD recommend instead?: IISD argues Mexico should favour domestic renewable generation, grids and storage over expanding oil and gas, saying this could reduce import reliance and attract private capital. That is the authors' position.

Pemex Needs Nearly $110 Billion to Hit Mexico's Output Targets — OilPrice.com
Mexico's Energy Sovereignty in Practice — International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)
Mexico energy security and renewables investment (press release) — International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)