• The Dallas Fed Energy Survey's third-quarter respondents averaged $88.38 for year-end 2026 WTI, with answers ranging from $70 to $126.
• Spot WTI averaged $98.70 during the September 16-24 collection window, about $10 above the year-end average expectation.
• Rigzone reports 106 executives put WTI at $88 in six months, $82 in one year, $79 in two years and $82 in five years.
• The business activity index fell to 38.8 from 46.1 in the second quarter, even as the oil production index rose to 20.7 from 15.0.
• This is a sentiment survey of operators, not a price forecast from a market model, and it is not trading advice.

Oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expect WTI to ease from the high-$90s. Respondents averaged $88.38 per barrel for year-end 2026, while spot WTI averaged $98.70 during the September 16-24 collection window, according to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The gap is the story: operators are pricing a fading risk premium. The survey measures sentiment, not a market-clearing forecast, and nothing here is a trading call.

What the price curve says

The executives' curve slopes down, then flattens. Rigzone, summarizing the Dallas Fed data, reports that 106 executives expect $88 in six months, $82 in one year, $79 in two years and $82 in five years. A flat long-dated band around $80 suggests operators see a price they can plan capital against, not a spike to be chased. These are averages of stated expectations, and individual answers varied widely.

Expectations have chased spot

The year-end average has climbed every quarter shown by Rigzone: $62.41 in the fourth quarter of 2025, $74.04 in the first quarter, $80.55 in the second and $88.38 in the third. Over the same surveys the spot price during collection ran from $59.00 to $98.70. Executives' views therefore track the prevailing price with a lag, which argues for reading the level as sentiment rather than independent evidence.

Activity and cost signals

The Dallas Fed reports a business activity index of 38.8, down from 46.1 in the second quarter, while the oil production index rose to 20.7 from 15.0 and the natural gas production index to 14.8 from 3.7. Exploration and production firms were more optimistic, with an outlook index of 50.0, than services firms at 4.6. Services input costs registered 60.4, and the survey said all cost indexes were above their series averages.

Why the Gulf should care

Executives named geopolitical instability as the main concern, and one respondent described pricing volatility as near an all-time high given the backdrop of Iran. For Gulf producers and refiners, US operators' belief that prices drift toward roughly $80 matters because it frames how much new supply and spending the market may see. Watch whether spot converges toward the $88 year-end average and how the Iran situation evolves.