StandardsAboutContact
The Gulf Barrel
Biomethane vs Jackdaw: 100 TWh claim, NESO sees 30 TWh

Biomethane vs Jackdaw: 100 TWh claim, NESO sees 30 TWh

ADBA says UK biomethane could pass Jackdaw's peak by the early 2030s. NESO puts the low-risk level near 30 TWh a year.

Biomethane could top 100 TWh a year by 2050, about four times Jackdaw's peak, but that is a projection by the ADBA trade body. NESO, the system operator, found around 30 TWh a year achievable before major sustainability trade-offs, so feedstock and policy, not ambition, decide the outcome. This is analysis, not trading advice.

The Gulf Barrel Desk · 3 min read

A trade-body projection reported by Energy Voice on 2 November 2026 says UK biomethane could exceed 100 TWh a year by 2050, about four times the peak output of the Jackdaw gas field. The comparison is striking, but it rests on feedstock assumptions that the system operator's own analysis does not support at that scale. The two numbers should be read side by side.

What ADBA is claiming

ADBA projects UK biomethane above 100 TWh a year by 2050 and says it could exceed Jackdaw's peak output by the early 2030s, according to Energy Voice. Jackdaw is expected to produce up to 25 TWh a year at peak over a life of up to 11 years, and energy minister Michael Shanks told parliament it could meet about 6% of UK gas production at peak, as paraphrased by Energy Voice. Energy Voice cites no ADBA report for the projection, so it is best read as an estimate.

What NESO's analysis shows

NESO's report, released on 30 July 2026, found around 30 TWh a year achievable before major sustainability trade-offs become significant, which The Energyst reports is five times today's level. That is a threshold for rising risk, not a hard limit. NESO's Future Energy Scenarios explore pathways of up to 64 TWh of annual production by 2050. Both figures sit well below ADBA's 100 TWh-plus, and the difference turns on how much feedstock can be used.

Carbon capture could change the economics

Energy Voice reports that a Cadent study puts full sector potential at 120 TWh a year, producing about 17 million tonnes of bioCO2 annually. It says capturing that carbon could earn producers £20/MWh and cut government subsidies by a third. These are reported figures from a network operator with a commercial interest in the outcome. They show the case depends on carbon capture policy as well as on feedstock supply.

What to watch: whether any assessment reconciles the ADBA and NESO feedstock assumptions, and whether carbon capture policy for biomethane is settled. Until then, around 30 TWh is the system operator's low-risk figure and 100 TWh-plus is a trade-body projection. This is analysis, not trading advice.

How does biomethane compare with Jackdaw's output?
Energy Voice reported on 2 November 2026 that Jackdaw is expected to produce up to 25 TWh a year at peak over a life of up to 11 years. ADBA projects biomethane above 100 TWh a year by 2050, roughly four times that.
Is the 100 TWh figure consistent with NESO's work?
No. NESO's July 2026 report found around 30 TWh achievable before major sustainability trade-offs become significant, and its Future Energy Scenarios explore up to 64 TWh by 2050. The ADBA projection sits above both.
What does Cadent say about potential?
Energy Voice reports that Cadent's study puts full sector potential at 120 TWh a year. It says capturing the resulting bioCO2 could earn producers £20/MWh and cut government subsidies by a third.
  1. Green gas could have four times Jackdaw's output by 2050 — Energy Voice
  2. Exploring the Role of Biomethane in the Energy System to 2050 — National Energy System Operator (NESO)
  3. NESO says Britain can increase sustainable biomethane production five-fold before potential trade-offs and risks emerge — The Energyst