• UBS raised its end-2026 Brent forecast to $110 a barrel from $100, per OilPrice.com's October 28 report.
• The 2027 curve rose $5 at each point: $95 for March, $90 for June and $85 for September.
• UBS had raised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast to $100 from about $80 on October 6, per Reuters via BOE Report.
• UBS describes Hormuz flows as materially recovered but fragile; Gulf loadings remain below prewar levels in its latest view.
• Brent traded at $115.30 at 10:22 a.m. ET on October 28, above UBS's year-end figure. This is analysis, not trading advice.

UBS has raised its Brent forecast for the second time this month and now expects crude at $110 a barrel at the end of 2026, up from $100, according to OilPrice.com's October 28 report. With Brent already quoted above that level, the forecast leans on how fragile Gulf supply remains. This is analysis, not trading advice.

What UBS changed

UBS lifted its end-2026 Brent forecast to $110 a barrel from $100 and raised its 2027 curve by $5 at each point, to $95 for March, $90 for June and $85 for September, according to OilPrice.com's October 28 report. On October 6 the bank had raised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast to $100 from about $80, per Reuters reporting carried by BOE Report. That makes this the second raise in October.

Where Gulf flows stand

In the October 6 note, as relayed by Reuters, UBS said Hormuz flows had "materially recovered in recent weeks" but called the recovery "fragile given ongoing Iranian attacks." Shipping data cited by Reuters showed Gulf exporters above prewar levels for roughly half of September. OilPrice.com's October 28 report says UBS still sees Gulf crude and condensate port loadings below prewar levels. Both are secondary accounts, not official OPEC, EIA or IEA data.

Price, risk and what to watch

Brent traded at $115.30 a barrel at 10:22 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 28, per OilPrice.com, already above UBS's year-end figure. The report said prices rose after the Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery; Saudi authorities have not confirmed a direct hit, so the claim is unverified. UBS's October 6 note named $120+ as a risk if new attacks occur, and lower prices if a faster US-Iran agreement emerges.

UBS says uncertainty around its forecasts remains elevated, reflecting the unpredictable Middle East conflict and the pace of recovery in Gulf production and global oil demand. A forecast is a scenario, not a price commitment. Official OPEC, EIA and IEA data should be checked against it, and this is analysis, not trading advice.